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SA Rand & Gold

Updated October 30,  2011 - Gold in SA Rand - fresh breakout

South African Rand Gold
  [Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com] Bullish objective R - 18000
Resistance R - 13800
Support R - 12800
Bearish objective R - 12600
Technical pattern fresh BUY signal
 
ZARGold pf1
Short term candle October 17 Chart comments 

  • January 21, 2011: Gold expressed in RAND was up!..

  • February 1 - March 23, 2011 : BUY

  • April 27: BREAKOUT

  • May 6: not a lot of room between today's price and the Secular Uptrend (bleu line)

  • May 20 - June 20: bull run = BUY!

  • July 8: BREAKOUT CONFIRMED

  • August 3: note the price of Gold creeping up along the bottom of the uptrend channel.

  • August 12 - 23: bull run but closing in on the top of the bull channel = resistance and plausible correction

  • October 18: Diamond (= continuation pattern) in the make???

  • October 31: continuation pattern was correct...fresh breakout!
       
Weekly candle  October 17
mind the GAPS

 


October 30, 2011 :

South African Rand
US $ Euro
Bullish Objective $ 16.50 € 12.25
Resistance $
Support $ 14.50 € 10.80
Technical pattern ???? ????

1) SA Rand in Dollar:

ZAR pf1
Short term candle October 17 Chart comments 

The Rand failed to break the neckline on the right candle chart = bearish >>>>>>>>>>>>

Important is that a long term trend line is being broken....and we have this steady uptrend of the Rand expressed in US Dollars.

  • July 8: SELL Dollars and buy Rands!

  • July 26: sideward

  • August 12: sideward

  • October 30: BEAR TREND RESUMED and another attempt to break through the neckline?!

       
Long term candle March 4, 2011
potential bullish HS formation

 


 

 


2) Rand in Euro: resumed bear trend..or not...again the Greek crisis had also an important impact on the exchange rate of the SA Rand.

 

eZAR pf1
Short term candle October 17 Chart comment

  • May 6 - June 20 : sideward consolidation.

  • July 8: BREAKING OUT...a bull run it is becoming.

  • July 18: sideward but bullish..

  • August 12: sideward but bearish

  • October 17: BEAR TREND..or not?  at this time a difficult market...

  
 Long term candle October 17

 


  • Amazing is that after the December 2001 sell off the Rand has recovered all the way to its long term trend against the Dollar (Dec/Jan 2004-2005). Ever since it has been weakening again. October 22/23 it has violently broken down out of a triangle. The Resistance level of 0.09 has been confirmed by the triangle. Long Term, the Rand could be following in the footsteps of the Zimdollar.

  • May 28 - July 21 : The rand is pulling back towards its previous support line which has now become resistance (0.09)  Similar conditions occurred in the past after a sell off of the Rand. The South African Rand is also a Commodity currency and was way oversold against the Dollar. The policy of the SA Reserve Bank is to maintain the value of the Rand on an edge between the US Dollar and the Euro.

  • January 2010: breaking out of the reversed HS pattern!?..or will the pattern become a BEARISH WEDGE!

  • March 2010: a breakout and short to medium term opportunity...

  • May 2010: running into the long term secular down trend line = caution

  • December 31, 2010 : breakout !

  • June 2011: the Rand certainly is NOT weaker than the Euro.


Updated May 20,  2011

South-Africa has always been the most European country of Africa. It was also the country which was rules the longest by white people. Historically, since the sanctions of 1960 the Rand has been a weak currency. Today it appears that like the Australian Dollar it is advantaged by the boom in Commodity prices. The previously disadvantaged has become advantaged. We did some research about the financial situation of South Africa years ago as The Mountainlands project was started up and the figures looked rather good.

Click here for the report of the IMF . Short to Medium term the Rand offers a valid alternative to the Dollar and the Euro.

 

Fixed deposits earn from 5% to 8%...Fundamentally we have come to a point where the SA-Rand is probably a safer Fiat currency than the Euro, the Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and the British Pound.

 

SA 10 y bond yield

 


 

 

NO African country can and will survive without the receipts of the export of African Commodities: Gold, silver, diamonds, etc... ALL African rulers, how corrupt they may be know this.

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