Mixed signals for Gold - 2009

Updated September 23, 2009 - Price will go up when time has come...and time has come for Gold!

• July 31: the objective of the Triangle is $ 1225

• September 23: Gold needs to break $ 1,033 for higher. We have no doubt this will happen. So far, we don't know exactly when. What we know is that it won't take months....and when it happens it probably will be spectacular!

Updated June 9, 2009

• Technically, the mixed signals are neutralized. The smaller head and shoulder pattern with a neckline around the $ 890 has become invalid (nice try Gold Pool II) . Hence the ABC correction is validated [ an ABC correction is typical for a BULL market] by the 'double bottom'. As Gold is breaking out, it is also validating the HUGE UP FLAG which is often a halfway rest between two legs. At this point we can even forecast that $ 1,260 will probably be the next rest zone.
• Because of the down slope of the Up Flag, it becomes harder and harder to contain a break out of the Flag. Again - bad luck for the Gold Pool II.
• Once the $ 920 is cleared, expect $ 960. Once the $ 960 is cleared resistance should normally fall.
• Positive however is that the Stochastics have re-entered a BUY zone and we have an important accumulation Gold and Silver options for the next months. Mid May is an Option roll-over date. Hence, resistance on Gold will probably fall later this month. Worst case scenario, we expect to see $ 1,000 brushed again. See a summer correction followed by a break out through the $ 1,000 later this year.

• This time however, there are several technical indicators showing that a large price move could be imminent.

• What many saw as a Head and Shoulder formation, is nothing more than a UP FLAG.

• Weekly and daily Stochastic have moved into a Buy position.

• The objective of the large reversed HS formation is $ 1,300 . As soon as $-Gold moves through the $ 925 level, it will break out of a triangle and also out of the flag. Because all technical indicators have eased back to a Buy level, this move can take $-Gold through the $ 1,000 level. If it does, shorters will have to run to cover positions and will so add to the upwards dynamic.

• Sentiment is dull to negative.

• There is a flat CONTANGO for Gold and for Silver indicating that there is s shortage of physical metal for delivery. [ This is where the physical market meets the paper market! The physical market ALWAYS wins.]

• Spring time is historically a time of price relaxation for Gold. It is followed by a first blossoming towards June/July to fall back into Summer Siesta in order to be strong for the Holidays (XMas and New Year).

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